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 This is why Argentina is gonna be world cup champion :P

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sebbat
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PostSubject: This is why Argentina is gonna be world cup champion :P   Mon 14 Jun 2010, 3:44 pm

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Why will Argentina gain the world cup? An analysis based on numbers...
The sympathizers with soccer commit serious logical errors when they evaluate the probabilities of success of his own one selected in a world cup. Here, an analysis absolutely objective and based on the information that demonstrates why Argentina will gain the cup in South Africa 2010...


We are in hours of the initial kick of the World cup of Soccer South Africa 2010. In the last weeks, since it always happens in these events, the most diverse speculations have been thrown about whom it will remain with the cup.

Nevertheless, the predictions are hard affected by a key factor: the nationality of the analyst.

So I traced, inside the sports press of the considered countries "big candidates", articles of analysts specialized with predictions about the performance of every team.

The information confirms the initial hypothesis. Strong slants are observed in the compilation, analysis and interpretation of the information.

In Brazil, Spain, France, Germany, Holland, England, and Italy, there registers a systematical overestimate of the possibilities of the proper national cocktail. In the Argentina, curiously, the slant is evident in the opposite direction: the analysts underestimate the chances of the team.

This phenomenon is, up to a point, a soccer declaration of the slants that affect the executives at the time of analyzing information for the decision making. With a lot of frequency, we look and present only the information that confirm our intuitions while we reject those that contradict our theory.

Thus I proposed to realize an absolutely impartial analysis. I submitted the big favorites above mentioned to a meticulous compilation of information and a rigorous logical evaluation. Without prejudices, without manipulations, without slovenly models econométricos, not the passion of the sympathizer with soccer...

With the suitable information, using only the reason and the common sense, demostraré that the Argentina will be the next champion of the world.

As the dynamics of the tournament, we will advance eliminating successively every candidate, up to observing that selected of Diego Maradona it is the only one that supports the cold empirical test.


England and Brazil, the favorites of the investment banks

In the last weeks, the banks JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs reports published with predictions on the performance of the different countries in South Africa 2010. The first one thinks that champion will be England. The second one, that the cup will travel to Brazil.

How did they come to these conclusions? With information extracted from diverse bookmakers to which they applied the same quantitative models that they use in his trading operations.

Although: can we entrust in the same mathematical models that they were affirming that the mortgage investments were sure?

Finally, the predictions of the models depend on the assumptions with with that they are constructed, considering in major or minor measured the variables that they assure to us that we will obtain the wished results. And these assumptions depend on the interests of the analysts (and of his chiefs).

Since it shows, it is enough the following thing. The model of Goldman Sachs supports that the United States have 2,81 % of probabilities of remaining with the cup, over the Portugal of Cristiano Ronaldo (and almost the triple that Paraguay, which did an impeccable qualifying round!).

Is very crazy to think that one treats the North American government as a "return of gentleness" for the salvataje that the bank received in October, 2008?

It is clear that any prediction realized with these models is slanted and erroneous. Thus we can deduce that neither England nor Brazil will gain the cup of the world.

Spain, not a world cup team

In 2008, Spain gained the Eurocup. Like that, many indicate it like favorite for South Africa 2010.

But, if we analyze the historical information, simply we see that Spain never went so far as to dispute even a semifinal of a Cup of the World (not even in 1982, when he organized the tournament). The T-shirt that they will dress Puyol, Xavi and the Child Toast it does not give good results in the world cups.

Logically, we can eliminate it of the list of candidates.

Holland, great players ground but without world cups

Holland, with scarcely 16 millions of inhabitants, is perhaps the ground with major good players production per cápita of the world. From there there went out Johan Cruyff, Ruud Gullit, Marco Van Basten, Frank Rikjaard, Edgar Davids and Patrick Kluivert, between others.

But the true thing is that Holland almost has not benefited from his soccer talent. Although these players have excelled in the best clubs of the world, his performance in the world cups has been very poor.

In 1974, the Mechanical Orange of Cruyff and Rinus Michels could not in the final against the Germany of Franz Beckenbauer y Gerd Müller.

In 1978, another fall in the final, this time with Argentina.

In 1990, the stars of historical Milan de Arrigo Sacchi came like favorites, with Gullit, Van Basten, and Rikjaard, in his best moment. But they fell down in eighth of end, leaving a sad image.

What there could not Cruyff, Gullit, Van Basten, Rikjaard, Bergkamp, Davids and so many other stars: will they be able to obtain it in South Africa Heitinga, Van der Vaart, Babel and Huntelaar? (with the whole respect that these good players deserve).

Logically, we can eliminate Holland of the list of candidates.

Italy cannot gain two followed world cups

In the postwar period, no team gained two world cups continued with the same technical director.

Argentina conquered the trophy in 1978 with César Luis Menotti. But it did a slack role in 1982 with the same driver.

In 1986, it devoted itself again, this time, with Carlos Salvador Bilardo. In 1990, it had the poorest performance. If it came to the final it was only for the heroic hands of Sergio Goycochea.

It is clear that to support the same leader generates a repetition of the old recipe that led to the success in the previous tournament. But, in a soccer as dynamic as that of today, this is a way to the defeat.

Since it is known, the DT of Italy is Marcello Lippi, the same one who gained the cup in 2006. Inevitably, it will be unable to repeat the victory in 2010.

With all confidence, then, we can eliminate to the square azzurra of the list of candidates.

France, without Zidane it is impossible

France is the country that more has progressed futbolísticamente in the last years. Between 1930 and 1994, it did not dispute any final of a world cup. In 1998 champion devoted himself for the first time, in that one remembered 3-0 against Brazil in Saint-Denis. In 2006, it lost the final for penalties against Italy.

The golden years of the French soccer have an explanation with name and surname: Zinedine Zidane.

In fact, in Korea - Japan 2002, when France was eliminated in the first round, Zidane was injured and one lost the first two parties. Newly they included it in the third one, still disabled, but the luck was already lazy.

Zizou played his last party for them "bleus" in the final of 2006 against Italy. His career finished with that remembered butt rear Marco Materazzi. And, with this expulsion, they finished also the golden years of the French soccer.

We can, then, affirm with absolute certainty that France will not gain the world cup.

Germany and the geographical impossibility

Germany never came to the final of a world cup disputed in the south hemisphere. Even more, three world cups that it gained were in Switzerland (1954), Germany (1974) and Italy (1990). Namely always playing of place or inside an area of influence near to his borders.

The causes of this phenomenon still have not been clearly elucidated. But, to the ends of our investigation, we do not need to investigate any more.

South Africa stays in the south hemisphere and to almost 10.000 kilometers of Berlin, throwing for ground all the German aspirations to obtain his fourth cup of the world.

Argentina champion, out of necessity statistics

So far, we have developed a logical / statistical rigorous method that it has been eliminating successively to the different candidates for rising with the cup.

Now we will see how the same method allows us to deduce that the Argentine selection will note down his third world cup in South Africa.

The parallelism of the dying classification: This is a well-known argument, but not for less powerful it.

In 1985, Argentina qualified to the World cup with a dying goal of Ricardo Gareca against Peru in the stadium of River Plate. And, since it is known, the albiceleste remained with the Cup in Mexico '86.

In 2009, 24 years later, Martín Palermo marked the goal of the classification, in the same arch of the same stadium, against the same rival and also pushing a center rasante on the line. The parallelism is clear.

The parallelism of the leadership: In Mexico '86 and Italy '90 the key managing vacancies of the Argentine selection were filled by Julio Humberto Grondona (president of the AFA), Carlos Salvador Bilardo (the technical director) and Diego Maradona (who was handling the team inside the field).

After 20 years of drought, in 2010, Argentina has the same persons in leadership positions. Grondona continues like president of the AFA, Bilard returned like general manager of the selection and Maradona it is the DT.

Whenever these three persons were in the same team during a world cup, the Argentina came, like minimum, to the final (and it could remain with the cup in Italy, of not having been for that doubtful penalty received for the Mexican umpire Edgardo Codesal, that Andreas Brehme changed for goal). Again, the parallelism is clear.

The parallelism of the climate: A meticulous analysis of the information reveals to us that all the world cups disputed in the south hemisphere were gained by countries of the above mentioned hemisphere: Uruguay 1930 (champion Uruguay), Brazil 1950 (champion Uruguay), Chile 1962 (champion Brazil), Argentina 1978 (champion Argentina).

It is clear that the European teams are not prepared to gain a world cup in winter and in a ground where the water goes away for the toilet in direction opposite to that they are used. Then, the possible champions are Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, New Zealand, Paraguay, South Africa and Uruguay.

It is not necessary to extend us on the cases of Australia, Chile, New Zealand, South Africa, Paraguay and Uruguay. Nobody in his healthy judgment would put them in the list of candidates. And, more above, we have told why Brazil will not be the champion. This leaves us to the Argentina like the only possibility.

Finally, in the last weeks we have heard all kinds of speculations about the results of the next cup of the world.

The majority is based on the passion futbolera or on mathematical models which apparent objectivity conceals, in fact, strong slants in the assumptions to obtain the wished result.

As one day the famous statistician Damodar Gujarati said: "If the sufficient thing is tortured to the information, these finish with confessing".

In this article, we have developed an absolutely objective and impartial analysis, with accurate and indisputable information that anyone can verify, without fanaticisms, without prejudices, without colors or secret interests.

Thanks to this analysis, we have identified correctly the causes and effects that explain the performance of a team in a world cup. This way, we can affirm, logically, that chosen Argentinian will rise with the Cup of the World 2010. It is a historical need.
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PostSubject: Re: This is why Argentina is gonna be world cup champion :P   Mon 21 Jun 2010, 9:23 am

Luis Fabiano mete goles con la Mano xD
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PostSubject: Re: This is why Argentina is gonna be world cup champion :P   Mon 21 Jun 2010, 9:35 am

Ni modo que metiera goles con los pies...
lol ntc xD
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PostSubject: Re: This is why Argentina is gonna be world cup champion :P   Mon 21 Jun 2010, 9:54 am

Nah, fuera o no mano, fue un golazo, uno de los mejores del mundial
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PostSubject: Re: This is why Argentina is gonna be world cup champion :P   Mon 21 Jun 2010, 10:23 am

OOOOOO Brazil xD

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PostSubject: Re: This is why Argentina is gonna be world cup champion :P   Mon 21 Jun 2010, 10:23 am

brazil won 3-1, BESTS. But the referee sux, he gave red card to KAKA, for nothing.
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PostSubject: Re: This is why Argentina is gonna be world cup champion :P   Mon 21 Jun 2010, 12:11 pm

si puede ser, pero la bajo con el antebrazo, si no, hubiera sido con el hombro y la pelota se le habria desacomodado sin poder meter el gol jeje
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PostSubject: Re: This is why Argentina is gonna be world cup champion :P   Mon 21 Jun 2010, 12:26 pm

in fact he used his hand. twice. you could see it in the slomo. the arms has to be at your body. he wouldnt ever had scored this goal if he did had his arms in the air touching the ball... --> no correct goal.
but argentinians has to defend hand goals. its in their football history xD

kaka was checking the other player with his elbow. you could see how he is rasing his elbow and stabbing it into the body of the ivorian, and how he is than acting like nothing happened and then going away, hoping ref wont find him. there was a huge clash of ppl. but he was getting away... why? hope the referee would not get him to give him his deserved second yellow.

but the referee gave out too yellow and red cards too few. (some refs too many some far too few ... - . -) there were 2 fouls of the ivorians that deserved instantly red. and there were alot fouls he didnt gave at all... thats why the game escalated in the end.

but it wasnt bad. you can still see the defense of brasil does mistakes... enough of them...
you can see brasils attack has problems getting into the 16 m space. but you can also see: if they are in 16 m space... then goal rings xD

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PostSubject: Re: This is why Argentina is gonna be world cup champion :P   Mon 21 Jun 2010, 7:36 pm

England had a draw with slovinia 0 - 0 D:! IF WE DONT WIN ON WENSDAY,WERE DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMED!
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PostSubject: Re: This is why Argentina is gonna be world cup champion :P   Mon 21 Jun 2010, 9:15 pm

Xasomur wrote:
kaka was checking the other player with his elbow. you could see how he is rasing his elbow and stabbing it into the body of the ivorian, and how he is than acting like nothing happened and then going away, hoping ref wont find him. there was a huge clash of ppl. but he was getting away... why? hope the referee would not get him to give him his deserved second yellow.

Wrong. He left out because he was pissed off. The ivorian just ran at him and BOOM on him, look at that :

and you said that he rose his elbow to sabb ivorian's boddy, but the ivorian takes his head into his hands just after having boomed kaka. So it's full cinema.
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PostSubject: Re: This is why Argentina is gonna be world cup champion :P   Mon 21 Jun 2010, 9:27 pm

yes i saw this all too.
and he didnt hit his face. that was the cinema.
but he raised his elbow and you can see how he checks him. he is not pushed away from the ivorian, he checks him...
face or not: yellow card!
which doesnt change the fact that the ivorian deserves another yellow card for unsportive acting.

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PostSubject: Re: This is why Argentina is gonna be world cup champion :P   Mon 21 Jun 2010, 10:03 pm

I LIKE TURTLES, if someone runs to you trying to hit you, you do let him do ? Or you raise your arm to protect you ? It's football, not girl sport. I LIKE TURTLES.
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PostSubject: Re: This is why Argentina is gonna be world cup champion :P   Mon 21 Jun 2010, 11:01 pm

Because footballers are allowed to do this and get away with it - Sometimes I do think its a girl's sport.

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PostSubject: Re: This is why Argentina is gonna be world cup champion :P   Tue 22 Jun 2010, 12:16 am

that was no protection. it was unsportive... just as unsportive as the greenies.
i liked how elano was playing, he always got up instantly when he got fouled, he didnt act. (unfortunately he got really hurt then :S) but such players are rare in football. kaka did fals and the ivorian as well.

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PostSubject: Re: This is why Argentina is gonna be world cup champion :P   Tue 22 Jun 2010, 1:10 am

Lol look at the Portugal game now!! LOL - North Korea are pooned! Very Happy

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PostSubject: Re: This is why Argentina is gonna be world cup champion :P   Tue 22 Jun 2010, 1:32 am

7-0
portugal wasnt THAT good. especially not first half.
but it was entertainment ^^

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PostSubject: Re: This is why Argentina is gonna be world cup champion :P   Tue 22 Jun 2010, 3:00 am

lol portugal pwns D:
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PostSubject: Re: This is why Argentina is gonna be world cup champion :P   Tue 22 Jun 2010, 4:28 am

Xaso, what team is playing good for you? xD
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PostSubject: Re: This is why Argentina is gonna be world cup champion :P   Tue 22 Jun 2010, 4:32 am

right now i am not impressed. why the heck has germany to lose against serbia?
mexicos second match was fantastic. good tactic, and much efforts of the players. that match they played best.
if they go on playing like that, they can achieve everything

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PostSubject: Re: This is why Argentina is gonna be world cup champion :P   Tue 22 Jun 2010, 4:38 am

ARGENTINA VS. MEXICO?? :oo lol
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PostSubject: Re: This is why Argentina is gonna be world cup champion :P   Tue 22 Jun 2010, 4:41 am

da , jugarle a mexico ya es aburrido, ojala qe podramos jugarle a uruguay
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PostSubject: Re: This is why Argentina is gonna be world cup champion :P   Tue 22 Jun 2010, 4:52 am

Hora no se cual es peor, le tengo miedo a los 2 xD
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PostSubject: Re: This is why Argentina is gonna be world cup champion :P   Tue 22 Jun 2010, 5:04 am

jaja, ami me da un poco de miedo uruguay , mexico no tanto. Igual no quememo , ya veo qe grecia nos gana por goleada me la corto XD


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PostSubject: Re: This is why Argentina is gonna be world cup champion :P   Tue 22 Jun 2010, 5:05 am

America and Britain Own Razz
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PostSubject: Re: This is why Argentina is gonna be world cup champion :P   Tue 22 Jun 2010, 5:31 am

Britain sucks and America sucks more.

Argentina ftw 4-1 puppy
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PostSubject: Re: This is why Argentina is gonna be world cup champion :P   Tue 22 Jun 2010, 7:34 am

Fu cking chile, they won 1-0 Suiza, now Spain is winning 1-0 Honduras
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PostSubject: Re: This is why Argentina is gonna be world cup champion :P   Today at 3:22 am

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