This is why Argentina is gonna be world cup champion :P

Sith Lord Posts : 6171

First topic message reminder :

Why will Argentina gain the world cup? An analysis based on numbers...
The sympathizers with soccer commit serious logical errors when they evaluate the probabilities of success of his own one selected in a world cup. Here, an analysis absolutely objective and based on the information that demonstrates why Argentina will gain the cup in South Africa 2010...

We are in hours of the initial kick of the World cup of Soccer South Africa 2010. In the last weeks, since it always happens in these events, the most diverse speculations have been thrown about whom it will remain with the cup.

Nevertheless, the predictions are hard affected by a key factor: the nationality of the analyst.

So I traced, inside the sports press of the considered countries "big candidates", articles of analysts specialized with predictions about the performance of every team.

The information confirms the initial hypothesis. Strong slants are observed in the compilation, analysis and interpretation of the information.

In Brazil, Spain, France, Germany, Holland, England, and Italy, there registers a systematical overestimate of the possibilities of the proper national cocktail. In the Argentina, curiously, the slant is evident in the opposite direction: the analysts underestimate the chances of the team.

This phenomenon is, up to a point, a soccer declaration of the slants that affect the executives at the time of analyzing information for the decision making. With a lot of frequency, we look and present only the information that confirm our intuitions while we reject those that contradict our theory.

Thus I proposed to realize an absolutely impartial analysis. I submitted the big favorites above mentioned to a meticulous compilation of information and a rigorous logical evaluation. Without prejudices, without manipulations, without slovenly models econométricos, not the passion of the sympathizer with soccer...

With the suitable information, using only the reason and the common sense, demostraré that the Argentina will be the next champion of the world.

As the dynamics of the tournament, we will advance eliminating successively every candidate, up to observing that selected of Diego Maradona it is the only one that supports the cold empirical test.

England and Brazil, the favorites of the investment banks

In the last weeks, the banks JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs reports published with predictions on the performance of the different countries in South Africa 2010. The first one thinks that champion will be England. The second one, that the cup will travel to Brazil.

How did they come to these conclusions? With information extracted from diverse bookmakers to which they applied the same quantitative models that they use in his trading operations.

Although: can we entrust in the same mathematical models that they were affirming that the mortgage investments were sure?

Finally, the predictions of the models depend on the assumptions with with that they are constructed, considering in major or minor measured the variables that they assure to us that we will obtain the wished results. And these assumptions depend on the interests of the analysts (and of his chiefs).

Since it shows, it is enough the following thing. The model of Goldman Sachs supports that the United States have 2,81 % of probabilities of remaining with the cup, over the Portugal of Cristiano Ronaldo (and almost the triple that Paraguay, which did an impeccable qualifying round!).

Is very crazy to think that one treats the North American government as a "return of gentleness" for the salvataje that the bank received in October, 2008?

It is clear that any prediction realized with these models is slanted and erroneous. Thus we can deduce that neither England nor Brazil will gain the cup of the world.

Spain, not a world cup team

In 2008, Spain gained the Eurocup. Like that, many indicate it like favorite for South Africa 2010.

But, if we analyze the historical information, simply we see that Spain never went so far as to dispute even a semifinal of a Cup of the World (not even in 1982, when he organized the tournament). The T-shirt that they will dress Puyol, Xavi and the Child Toast it does not give good results in the world cups.

Logically, we can eliminate it of the list of candidates.

Holland, great players ground but without world cups

Holland, with scarcely 16 millions of inhabitants, is perhaps the ground with major good players production per cápita of the world. From there there went out Johan Cruyff, Ruud Gullit, Marco Van Basten, Frank Rikjaard, Edgar Davids and Patrick Kluivert, between others.

But the true thing is that Holland almost has not benefited from his soccer talent. Although these players have excelled in the best clubs of the world, his performance in the world cups has been very poor.

In 1974, the Mechanical Orange of Cruyff and Rinus Michels could not in the final against the Germany of Franz Beckenbauer y Gerd Müller.

In 1978, another fall in the final, this time with Argentina.

In 1990, the stars of historical Milan de Arrigo Sacchi came like favorites, with Gullit, Van Basten, and Rikjaard, in his best moment. But they fell down in eighth of end, leaving a sad image.

What there could not Cruyff, Gullit, Van Basten, Rikjaard, Bergkamp, Davids and so many other stars: will they be able to obtain it in South Africa Heitinga, Van der Vaart, Babel and Huntelaar? (with the whole respect that these good players deserve).

Logically, we can eliminate Holland of the list of candidates.

Italy cannot gain two followed world cups

In the postwar period, no team gained two world cups continued with the same technical director.

Argentina conquered the trophy in 1978 with César Luis Menotti. But it did a slack role in 1982 with the same driver.

In 1986, it devoted itself again, this time, with Carlos Salvador Bilardo. In 1990, it had the poorest performance. If it came to the final it was only for the heroic hands of Sergio Goycochea.

It is clear that to support the same leader generates a repetition of the old recipe that led to the success in the previous tournament. But, in a soccer as dynamic as that of today, this is a way to the defeat.

Since it is known, the DT of Italy is Marcello Lippi, the same one who gained the cup in 2006. Inevitably, it will be unable to repeat the victory in 2010.

With all confidence, then, we can eliminate to the square azzurra of the list of candidates.

France, without Zidane it is impossible

France is the country that more has progressed futbolísticamente in the last years. Between 1930 and 1994, it did not dispute any final of a world cup. In 1998 champion devoted himself for the first time, in that one remembered 3-0 against Brazil in Saint-Denis. In 2006, it lost the final for penalties against Italy.

The golden years of the French soccer have an explanation with name and surname: Zinedine Zidane.

In fact, in Korea - Japan 2002, when France was eliminated in the first round, Zidane was injured and one lost the first two parties. Newly they included it in the third one, still disabled, but the luck was already lazy.

Zizou played his last party for them "bleus" in the final of 2006 against Italy. His career finished with that remembered butt rear Marco Materazzi. And, with this expulsion, they finished also the golden years of the French soccer.

We can, then, affirm with absolute certainty that France will not gain the world cup.

Germany and the geographical impossibility

Germany never came to the final of a world cup disputed in the south hemisphere. Even more, three world cups that it gained were in Switzerland (1954), Germany (1974) and Italy (1990). Namely always playing of place or inside an area of influence near to his borders.

The causes of this phenomenon still have not been clearly elucidated. But, to the ends of our investigation, we do not need to investigate any more.

South Africa stays in the south hemisphere and to almost 10.000 kilometers of Berlin, throwing for ground all the German aspirations to obtain his fourth cup of the world.

Argentina champion, out of necessity statistics

So far, we have developed a logical / statistical rigorous method that it has been eliminating successively to the different candidates for rising with the cup.

Now we will see how the same method allows us to deduce that the Argentine selection will note down his third world cup in South Africa.

The parallelism of the dying classification: This is a well-known argument, but not for less powerful it.

In 1985, Argentina qualified to the World cup with a dying goal of Ricardo Gareca against Peru in the stadium of River Plate. And, since it is known, the albiceleste remained with the Cup in Mexico '86.

In 2009, 24 years later, Martín Palermo marked the goal of the classification, in the same arch of the same stadium, against the same rival and also pushing a center rasante on the line. The parallelism is clear.

The parallelism of the leadership: In Mexico '86 and Italy '90 the key managing vacancies of the Argentine selection were filled by Julio Humberto Grondona (president of the AFA), Carlos Salvador Bilardo (the technical director) and Diego Maradona (who was handling the team inside the field).

After 20 years of drought, in 2010, Argentina has the same persons in leadership positions. Grondona continues like president of the AFA, Bilard returned like general manager of the selection and Maradona it is the DT.

Whenever these three persons were in the same team during a world cup, the Argentina came, like minimum, to the final (and it could remain with the cup in Italy, of not having been for that doubtful penalty received for the Mexican umpire Edgardo Codesal, that Andreas Brehme changed for goal). Again, the parallelism is clear.

The parallelism of the climate: A meticulous analysis of the information reveals to us that all the world cups disputed in the south hemisphere were gained by countries of the above mentioned hemisphere: Uruguay 1930 (champion Uruguay), Brazil 1950 (champion Uruguay), Chile 1962 (champion Brazil), Argentina 1978 (champion Argentina).

It is clear that the European teams are not prepared to gain a world cup in winter and in a ground where the water goes away for the toilet in direction opposite to that they are used. Then, the possible champions are Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, New Zealand, Paraguay, South Africa and Uruguay.

It is not necessary to extend us on the cases of Australia, Chile, New Zealand, South Africa, Paraguay and Uruguay. Nobody in his healthy judgment would put them in the list of candidates. And, more above, we have told why Brazil will not be the champion. This leaves us to the Argentina like the only possibility.

Finally, in the last weeks we have heard all kinds of speculations about the results of the next cup of the world.

The majority is based on the passion futbolera or on mathematical models which apparent objectivity conceals, in fact, strong slants in the assumptions to obtain the wished result.

As one day the famous statistician Damodar Gujarati said: "If the sufficient thing is tortured to the information, these finish with confessing".

In this article, we have developed an absolutely objective and impartial analysis, with accurate and indisputable information that anyone can verify, without fanaticisms, without prejudices, without colors or secret interests.

Thanks to this analysis, we have identified correctly the causes and effects that explain the performance of a team in a world cup. This way, we can affirm, logically, that chosen Argentinian will rise with the Cup of the World 2010. It is a historical need.

Legend Posts : 10648

Spain will win World Cup methinks.

Jedi Master Posts : 1516

53 minutes SECOND HALF: Spain 0 - 1 Sweden Surprised

Posts : 1466

Not sweden Switzerland
@ Grimlore no one talks about America cuz their football team sux!

Posts : 13101

SPAIN LOST
T H E SENSATION O.o
didnt loose for 100 years but now. now look at the table... best team --> germany.
ZOOM!

Jedi Knight Posts : 549

HAHAHAH DIE SPAIN!

Sith Lord Posts : 6171

OMG, CAN YOU READ MY TOPIC? SPAIN CAN BE THE BEST TEAM IN THE WORLD, BUT IN WORLD CUP THEY

SUX

Legend Posts : 10648

Seb wrote:: Spain, not a world cup team

In 2008, Spain gained the Eurocup. Like that, many indicate it like favorite for South Africa 2010.

But, if we analyze the historical information, simply we see that Spain never went so far as to dispute even a semifinal of a Cup of the World (not even in 1982, when he organized the tournament). The T-shirt that they will dress Puyol, Xavi and the Child Toast it does not give good results in the world cups.

Logically, we can eliminate it of the list of candidates.

Seb its not logical at all to eliminate Spain.

Spain have the best midfielders (individual analysis) and one of the top attack force's in this tournament. Their style of play is quick, dangerous, and a threat to everyone. The fact that they have won 45 OUT OF THE LAST 49 GAMES (including the last one) - In the build up to the world cup they won 25 out of 26 games, and the 2 strikers have scored over 400 goals.

Spain dominated Switzerland despite losing the game. Spain had majority possesion and 16 on target shots! How many did the Swiss have? One - LOL

Spain were the better team morally and deserved to win. The swiss goal was messy yet their defense was amazing. I'd like to see Argentina push through their soild defense.

Seb wrote:: OMG, CAN YOU READ MY TOPIC? SPAIN CAN BE THE BEST TEAM IN THE WORLD, BUT IN WORLD CUP THEY

So let me translate that - Spain are a good team out of the world cup but as soon as they enter the World Cup they suck? How does that make sense????

My Spanish friend says Spain have AT LEAST the same chance as winning as Argentina do.

Sith Lord Posts : 6171

This is not just logic kernow, this is something called experience, the world cup isnt the same than eurocup or american cup or eliminatories.

The world cup needs more than a good team, the players need to know how to play the world cup and they need to have the intelligence and something that here in Argentina we call mystic spain havent got it, because they never reached the semifinals (And they had better teams than now) Teams like germany,italy,france,brazil,Argentina have the mystic because they played a lot of finals, not like spain, maybe this is just something crazy, but here in Argentina we belive this, and i think that its correct

Legend Posts : 10648

"Argentina have an angry little argentinain player who likes to get a 11 yellow cards and 2 red cards for Liverpool this season. They also have a little guy who likes to attach the ball to his foot and pretend he is good." - What my mates said xD

I can't comment your post but my mate said it is retarded. Razz

He also showed me this and said - "Tell ure mate Argentina need to cheat win the world cup it seems:

Wikipedia wrote:: "Hand of God" goal

Six minutes into the second half, Maradona cut inside from the right flank and played a diagonal low pass to the edge of the area to team-mate Jorge Valdano and continued his run in the hope of a one-two movement. Maradona's pass, however, was played slightly behind Valdano and reached England's Steve Hodge, the left midfielder who had dropped back to defend.

Hodge – who swapped shirts with Maradona after the game[7] – tried to hook the ball clear but miscued it. The ball screwed off his foot and into the penalty area, toward Maradona, who had continued his run. England goalkeeper Peter Shilton came out of his goal to punch the ball clear, with his considerable height at 6 ft 1 in (1.85 m), making him clear favourite to beat Maradona at 5 ft 5 in (1.65 m) to it. However, Maradona reached it first, with the outside of his left fist. The ball went into the goal, and the referee (Tunisian Ali Bin Nasser), not having seen the infringement, allowed the goal.

Maradona later said, "I was waiting for my teammates to embrace me, and no one came... I told them, 'Come hug me, or the referee isn't going to allow it.'"[8]
This photograph, published after the game, gave a clear view of the "Hand of God" incident.

At the post-game press conference, Maradona claimed that the goal was scored "un poco con la cabeza de Maradona y otro poco con la mano de Dios" (a little with the head of Maradona and a little with the hand of God),[9] coining the phrase "Hand of God". Video and photographic evidence demonstrated that he had struck the ball with his hand, which was shown on television networks and in newspapers all over the world, with England manager Bobby Robson stating instead that it was 'the hand of a rascal..'[10] The goal helped intensify the footballing rivalry between the two nations: the English now felt that they had been cheated out of a possible World Cup victory,[11] while the Argentinians enjoyed the manner in which they had taken the lead.

I didn't know Argentina cheated the English out of a world cup win. Neutral

Sith Lord Posts : 6171

Well, France cheated too, and nobody said anything, in any chase, the referee was stupid Razz

, btw that is the most famous goal in the history of world cup kernow lol.

And other thing, if you are talking about Mascherano.. you need to watch him in Argentina, he is a different player Smile

Retarder? Why? Because we feel the sport different than you? Im not the only Argentinian who thinks that, a lot of us, and we arent retard, for something we have Two World Cups and the best player is called Lionel Messi, if we cheated in 1986 i dont care, we win anyway, and Maradona is the best player in the history of Football.

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Jedi Knight Posts : 549

Kernow Pilgrim wrote:

"Argentina have an angry little argentinain player who likes to get a 11 yellow cards and 2 red cards for Liverpool this season. They also have a little guy who likes to attach the ball to his foot and pretend he is good." - What my mates said xD

I can't comment your post but my mate said it is retarded. Razz

He also showed me this and said - "Tell ure mate Argentina need to cheat win the world cup it seems:

Wikipedia wrote:: "Hand of God" goal

Six minutes into the second half, Maradona cut inside from the right flank and played a diagonal low pass to the edge of the area to team-mate Jorge Valdano and continued his run in the hope of a one-two movement. Maradona's pass, however, was played slightly behind Valdano and reached England's Steve Hodge, the left midfielder who had dropped back to defend.

Hodge – who swapped shirts with Maradona after the game[7] – tried to hook the ball clear but miscued it. The ball screwed off his foot and into the penalty area, toward Maradona, who had continued his run. England goalkeeper Peter Shilton came out of his goal to punch the ball clear, with his considerable height at 6 ft 1 in (1.85 m), making him clear favourite to beat Maradona at 5 ft 5 in (1.65 m) to it. However, Maradona reached it first, with the outside of his left fist. The ball went into the goal, and the referee (Tunisian Ali Bin Nasser), not having seen the infringement, allowed the goal.

Maradona later said, "I was waiting for my teammates to embrace me, and no one came... I told them, 'Come hug me, or the referee isn't going to allow it.'"[8]
This photograph, published after the game, gave a clear view of the "Hand of God" incident.

At the post-game press conference, Maradona claimed that the goal was scored "un poco con la cabeza de Maradona y otro poco con la mano de Dios" (a little with the head of Maradona and a little with the hand of God),[9] coining the phrase "Hand of God". Video and photographic evidence demonstrated that he had struck the ball with his hand, which was shown on television networks and in newspapers all over the world, with England manager Bobby Robson stating instead that it was 'the hand of a rascal..'[10] The goal helped intensify the footballing rivalry between the two nations: the English now felt that they had been cheated out of a possible World Cup victory,[11] while the Argentinians enjoyed the manner in which they had taken the lead.

I didn't know Argentina cheated the English out of a world cup win. Neutral

A BOEH.... In this he is showing jealousy on the part of England. If you could not win this time, it is because we were better than his team. Second, the Argentine players are better than England of 1 to 10 .
We have better players like messi tevez higuain milito, the best forwards
and england just have rooney

1-0 argentina wins, 1-1 tie for england

Posts : 13101

lol.
why are you arguing. germany will win.
they play best.
and we won 1990, 1974 and 1954... and now this: 1990+1974-1954= ... 2 0 1 0 !!!!!!
ZOOM!!!!!

fact is: germans are da masters of dives ^^ but still we get yellow cards for it, but never a penalty.
and then comes argentina, and the best player of 1986 needs his hand to score a goal... lol???
and then comes england, needs a goal, which never crossed the line to win the cup... lol???

you should be quiet ^^
germany is the non plus ultra in football right now. thats why brazil is copying our football. özil will be best football player in the world in the coming years.

Sith Lord Posts : 6171

Ozil is good but i think that messi and robinho are betters

Posts : 13101

yet they are better... but özil is young. give him some practice.

Legend Posts : 10648

Seb wrote:: and Maradona is the best player in the history of Football.

Completely debatable. Pele? Cruijff? Beckenbauer? George Best? Zidane? Erik Cantona?

BTW I want to know who dekarmarized me and why. I was only re-iterating what my Spanish best mate said. But he (and I) take back 'retarded' - But it is a stupid insinuation that you KNOW Argentina will win Neutral

Sith Lord Posts : 6171

I didnt dekarmarized you.

These players are good too, but i just say it because Fifa made a votation and the winner was Maradona, so he is the best xD

Legend Posts : 10648

Meh I don't care - They can just remain silent dekarmarizing cowards Razz

Where is this poll Seb?

Jedi Knight Posts : 549

today, the best players are Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo
[url=today, the best players are Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo]today, the best players are Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo[/url]

Sith Lord Posts : 6171

Kernow, it wasnt a poll, it was a votation with football experts and ex players lol

Jedi Master Posts : 1516

Tomorroww: Argentina - Korea!! Very Happy

Sith Lord Posts : 6171

@Kernow Soz i made an error, the votation was to the fans, and the winner was Maradona, look

Player Nationality Percentage
1 Diego Maradona Argentina 53.60%
2 Pelé Brazil 18.53%
3 Eusébio Portugal 6.21%
4 Roberto Baggio Italy 5.42%
5 Romário Brazil 1.69%
6 Marco van Basten Netherlands 1.57%
7 Ronaldo Brazil 1.55%
8 Franz Beckenbauer Germany 1.50%
9 Zinedine Zidane France 1.34%
10 Rivaldo Brazil 1.19%
11 Zico Brazil 1.15%
12 Garrincha Brazil 1.08%
13 Johan Cruyff Netherlands 0.87%
14 Alfredo di Stéfano Argentina 0.68%
15 Michel Platini France 0.58%
16 Bobby Charlton England 0.39%
17 Ferenc Puskás Hungary 0.37%
18 Lothar Matthäus Germany 0.37%
19 Lev Yashin Soviet Union 0.36%
20 George Best Northern Ireland 0.32%

But, the expert votation was this

1 Pelé Brazil 1705
2 Johan Cruyff Netherlands 1704
3 Franz Beckenbauer Germany 1220
4 Alfredo di Stéfano Argentina 1215
5 Diego Maradona Argentina 1214
6 Ferenc Puskás Hungary 1210
7 Michel Platini France 722
8 Garrincha Brazil 624
9 Eusébio Portugal 544
10 Bobby Charlton England 508
11 Stanley Matthews England 368
12 Marco van Basten Netherlands 315
13 Gerd Müller Germany 310
14 Zico Brazil 207
15 Lothar Matthäus Germany 202
16 George Best Northern Ireland 187
17 Juan Alberto Schiaffino Uruguay
Italy
158
18 Ruud Gullit Netherlands 119
19 Didí Brazil 116
20 Gianni Rivera Italy 116
21 Giuseppe Meazza Italy 108
22 Matthias Sindelar Austria 106
23 Fritz Walter Germany 103
24 Bobby Moore England 98
25 José Manuel Moreno Argentina 96
26 Hugo Sánchez Mexico 85
27 George Weah Liberia 79
28 Roger Milla Cameroon 78
29 José Leandro Andrade Uruguay 74
30 Just Fontaine France 73
- Francisco Gento Spain 73
32 Ladislao Kubala Hungary
Czechoslovakia
Spain
71
33 Franco Baresi Italy 70
34 Josef Bican Austria
Czechoslovakia
63
35 Karl-Heinz Rummenigge Germany 59
36 Omar Sívori Argentina
Italy
56
37 Elías Figueroa Chile 55
38 Kevin Keegan England 53
39 Sándor Kocsis Hungary 52
40 Héctor Scarone Uruguay 51
41 Josef Masopust Czechoslovakia 46
42 Giacinto Facchetti Italy 44
43 Raymond Kopa France 41
- Sandro Mazzola Italy 41
45 Uwe Seeler Germany 40
46 Gunnar Nordahl Sweden 36
47 Zizinho Brazil 35
48 Teófilo Cubillas Peru 34
49 Arsenio Erico Paraguay 30
50 Denis Law Scotland 29
51 Silvio Piola Italy 28
52 Adolfo Pedernera Argentina 27
53 Obdulio Varela Uruguay 24
54 Arthur Friedenreich Brazil 23
55 Michael Laudrup Denmark 22
56 Alberto Spencer Ecuador 21
- József Bozsik Hungary 21
58 Tostão Brazil 19
59 Ernst Ocwirk Austria 18
60 Cha Bum-Kun Korea Republic 11
- Paul van Himst Belgium 11
62 Lakhdar Belloumi Algeria 10
- Rabah Madjer Algeria 10
64 Majed Abdullah Saudi Arabia 9
- Luis Cubilla Uruguay 9
- Oleg Blokhin Soviet Union 9

Sith Lord Posts : 5188

how many topics are there that argentina is the king of football (even when they suck)

Posts : 13101

in my opinion its
1. Beckenbauer
2. Pele
3. Maradonna

why?
beckenbauer won as a player, as a coach AND, how he says:, he won the cup for germany in 2006. its his effort, that germany was host of the world cup of 2006. you can be world champion several times. but only once in a lifetime you can get the cup into your country.
and he did all 3.
pele played better than beckenbauer, and he is a good representative, but he isnt that omnipresent like beckenbauer now. if its about ALL time you can see that beckenbauer had more influence than pele, though pele played better ^^
and maradonna was maybe on a comparable level like pele, but his breakdown after his career as a player makes him unsuitable for no. 1 or even 2.

Legend Posts : 10648

I trust the expert's decision because their decision is that xD

Jedi Master Posts : 1516

but Italy won the cup of 2006.
Vamos argentinaaa!! now the Argentina will play against Korea! Very Happy

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